Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Will Investing in IPOs be a risk-free option in 2011? What is the prospect of real estate IPOs? How do I choose the right IPO? Also explain IPO, FPO and right issue.

The fate of all IPOs cannot be predicted based on the performance of a single one. Each IPO will have to be judged on its own merits, business fundamentals and valuation levels. Remember, any investment in equities, whether it is through the primary or secondary market routes or through IPOs, always carries risk.
In the backdrop of the global financial crisis, investors are wary of putting in money in real estate companies. Lack of transparency and reliability in their financial and operating metrics has affected its image. Historically, whenever a sector or group of stocks have lost investor’s confidence, it has taken a long time for such stocks or sector to make a comeback in investor portfolios. We expect real estate IPOs to meet the same fate in 2011 as they did in 2010 with marginal improvement.
While investing in IPOs, choose a good business franchise with a sustainable business model, reasonable growth prospects, an investor-friendly management and one that ensures that the price being paid for the stock is reasonable.
IPO or initial public offer, as the name indicates, is the maiden public issue by a company that was hitherto unlisted. FPO or follow on public offer is a public issue brought about by an already listed company which wishes to expand its capital base by allotting further shares to the public. Rights issue is an issue of shares by a listed company to its existing shareholders at a pre-decided price (that is normally at a dis
count to its current market price) and in a predetermined proportion (say, one share for every two shares held). The existing shareholders can, however, renounce their rights to others at a price.

Both the Sensex and gold prices witnessed a healthy competition, reaching the 20,000 mark recently. Are stocks a better investment option in 2011? Will the Sensex touch the magic figure of 25,000 next year? And will under-performers like Reliance lead the bull-run in 2011?

The global financial crisis and the ensuing slowdown have shown that one should have a balanced exposure to all asset classes in the portfolio. Hence, the question, whether equities will outperform gold or vice versa in 2011, is futile. Equities have historically outperformed gold over a long- term horizon and are the best bet to get inflation beating returns. Gold is mainly an insurance against currency devaluation. It is not an investment as it does not have any productive use and does not generate any returns like a business.
At current levels, markets seem to be trading at more than 19 times the expected FY11 EPS and more than 16 times the expected FY12 EPS. Clearly they seem to be pricing in earnings till FY12. They should allow the earnings to catch up. This can happen in two ways, either a price correction or a time correction. In either case, though the markets might scale the 21,000 mark in the near term, led by strong liquidity flows, the 25,000 mark seems a tad improbable in 2011.
Stocks such as Reliance Industries that have been under-performing till date, are likely to outperform as investor preference shifts with time. Reliance is likely to benefit particularly from an expected rise in prices of commodities such as oil and natural gas.

Monday, March 21, 2011

RUPEE ON A HIGH


RUPEE ON A HIGH 

ByRobin Roy (Associate director)
PricewaterhouseCoopers Pvt Ltd, Mumbai                                                                                                       
An important indicator of any country’s economic strength is the general stability in exchange rates. Continuous fluctuation in the rates adversely affects the
balance of payments of a country The volatility in the foreign exchange rates depends on a variety of macroeconomic factors. Some of them are:

·        Trade flow (import and export) between countries
·        Flow (relative ease) of capital between the countries
·        Relative inflation rates
·        Fluctuation bands (limits) on exchange rate imposed by certain countries
·        Merchandise trade balance
·        Rate of inflation in the country
·        Flow of funds between the countries for the payment of stock and bond purchases
·        Short term and long term interest rate differentials

Exchange rate is determined by demand and supply of the currency for trade and also by international investments in the country— both foreign direct investment and foreign institutional investors. The appreciation of rupee would indicate a strong economy but at the same time it also results in loss of export competitiveness. The RBI takes corrective measures to contain the appreciation of rupee by allowing the exchange rate to be determined by market forces and also by buying and selling foreign exchange.
Exchange rates are important for any country as they determine the level of imports and exports. If a domestic currency appreciates with respect to a foreign currency, imported goods will be cheaper in the domestic market. If the country has a strong currency, its goods become more expensive in the international market, which results in impaired export competitiveness.
As per the Confederation of Indian Industry  exports declined by 4.7 per cent from around US $184 billion at the end of 2008- 09 to US $176.5 billion at the end of 2009-
10 due to the appreciation in rupee. Indian rupee has appreciated more than 12 per cent against the US dollar during the period from March2009 to May2010. The balance of payments data, recently released by the Reserve Bank of India, indicates that the net portfolio investment inflow between April and December 2009 amounted to US $23.6 billion as compared to an outflow of US $11.3 billion in 2008.
Movement in exchange rates has a significant impact on a company’s returns. The profitability of multinational companies gets affected as foreign exchange rates may make the local currency more valuable. It also affects the local companies’ ability to sell their products in foreign countries.
The sharp movement in rupee/dollar exchange rate in 2006-07 (rupee appreciating) witnessed by India’s export-oriented sectors (especially software and textile) reduced their export competitiveness forcing them to seek government intervention. Whereas, when the tide turned in fiscal 2008-09 and the rupee began
depreciating sharply against the USD, import-oriented sectors were in trouble. The rupee has gone up by 5.6 per cent since September 2010 as a result of sustained capital inflow. In 2010, the fund inflows from FITs have been $24 billion and the rupee has gone up by 4.4 per cent, primarily, because of an impressive initial public offering pipeline.
As seen in the year 2007-08, the rupee appreciation is caused mainly due to FIT inflows into the capital market. These inflows are purely speculative and hedge fund money which is intended to jack up the indices and take a u-turn, as and when they decide to book profits, warns Dhananjayan, financial advisor, Fore Derivatives Consumer  
Forum, Tripura. “This kind of uncontrolled capital flow, that artificially creates volatility in the currency market, is unhealthy for the real economy,” he says.
Similar scenario in 2007 was grossly ‘misused’ by banks that acted on behalf of their US counterparts, selling ‘illegal’ derivative contracts to gullible exporters across the country, causing a lot of strain in the economy, he adds.
According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal is 8.5 per cent, but it expressed concern over persistent high inflation and rising value of the rupee which could undermine future economic expansion. The multilateral lending agency, that had projected a growth rate of 8.2 per cent for 2010-11 in April, has retained its earlier projection of 8.7 per cent for 2011-12. According to the ADB Outlook Update, a
series of annual economic reports on the developing member countries of the ADB, growth is being supported by robust investment increased capital inflows, and stronger industrial output buoyed by rising consumer demand. ADB also warned that the rising value of rupee does not augur well for the Indian economy in the corning years. Rupee appreciate more than 11 per cent in real terms between August 2009 and 2010, it added, and “poses an additional challenge for policy makers as they seek to maintain high growth while winding back the monetary and fiscal stimulus measures used to help the economy recover from the global economic crisis”.
High inflation and rupee’s sharp appreciation, it added, could erode India’s export competitiveness and its plans to further expand economic growth to 9-10 per cent in coming years. Currency forecasters bet the rupee will drop in 2010 and climb in 2011. According to some experts, the rupee is only going to get stronger in the longer term (5—10 years) based on the fact that the Indian economy is going to grow much stronger than any other economy in the world (except China).
According to Jong-Wha Lee, ADB chief economist, a well-grounded and robust recovery for India would depend “on the ability of the various policymakers to coordinate effectively among themselves to achieve macroeconomic stability, and striking the right balance between growth, inflation and competitiveness objectives”

WHAT TO BUY? WHEN TO SELL? WHERE TO INVEST?


WHAT TO BUY?
WHEN TO SELL?
WHERE TO INVEST? 
Given today’s volatile markets and the
complexity and range of investment options, these
questions assume more urgency as we try to
maximize returns from our hard-earned savings.
To clarify issues and guide you through the market
maze, THE WALLET will get an experienced market
watcher to answer your queries on investment
every issue.

 In 2005, I took a home loan of Rs 15 lakh at 7.5 per cent for a period of 15 years. My father gave me Ps 10 lakh as gift from his retirement proceeds. Will the gift attract any taxes? Can I use the money to repay the loan? Or should I continue the loan and invest the amount in stocks?
Apart from gifts amounting to Rs 50,000 or less or those given at the time of marriage, all other gifts will he clubbed to the income of the assessed and will be taxed according to his Income tax bracket.
As for the home loan, as per Sec 24(b) of the Income Tax Act, 1961, a deduction up to Rs 1,50,000 can be claimed. This deduction is claimed towards the total interest that you pay on the home loan towards purchase or construction of the house property while computing the income from house property. The interest payable would be deductible in five equal annual installments commencing from the year in which the house has been acquired or constructed.
You may consider continuing with the home loan as it will ensure that you get a tax rebate. You may invest the gift amount in equity mutual funds, monthly investment plans, post office schemes or shares.
 As an investment, which is better: gold or silver? Can we consider them as investment for a short term, say one year?
Silver is a better investment than gold as it has productive use in the industry, and ample supply, unlike gold, restricts chances of a price bubble. Gold, on the other hand, is a good insurance/portfolio hedge (not a good investment necessarily) due to its limited supply and perceived store of value status.
Silver should outperform gold in 2011 as growth prospects start improving and demand for silver starts rising from the industrial sector. Gold, on the other hand, will be driven by prospects of currency debasement in major economies, which we feel might be limited in the near future.
Gold and silver should be considered only over a minimum investment horizon of three years. For a one-year horizon, the ideal asset class is debt, particularly short-term debt or fixed income bearing non-interest rate sensitive instruments such as company fixed deposits and fixed maturity plans.

Stop recycling


Stop recycling
Instead, better your current
financial resolutions in 2011
 By Anil Rego
When New Year is round the corner, all of us are ready with plans that we wish to start implementing on January 1. Friends, relatives and the media bring news about the options available for shopping and vacations. People also make resolutions over their finances.
Sample these: a) I will use my credit card and my limit on the same judiciously; b) I will pay off my personal loan as soon as I get my bonus; c) I will start planning for my retirement next year; and, d) I have not been able to start that systematic investment plan (SIP) I always wanted to do, but next year I am going to start it for sure.
The pattern that we observe with New Year resolutions is that these are not new resolutions; these are things that were pushed under the carpet for long. Recycling is a wrong way to make a New Year resolution. Ideally, resolutions should be about something that you are already doing, but plan to make that activity much stronger in the New Year. For instance, I am going to increase my SIP from 5,OOO per month to 7,5OO per month. This is measurable and actionable.
The other important aspect of making a New Year resolution is to stick to the basics. This is true when you are making financial resolutions as well. Let us look at a few resolutions that you can undertake.
1.
I will stick to my asset allocation
Asset allocation is an essential and critical element of a long-term financial plan. So, in the New Year, despite what the asset markets do, you should stick to your pre-decided asset allocation and, if appropriate ate, just make tactical changes. Getting swayed by market movements and trying to do too many things are among the biggest mistakes that people make, thereby ruining their financial health.
2.1 will read and fully understand the Implications of my participation in
any financial product
This is so fundamental a thing that people should just not follow during New Year but every single day of the year! Unfortunately, we do not invest enough time to simply ask relevant questions to the intermediaries, product sellers and ‘manufacturers’. Next time you are shopping for a financial product or if someone approaches you with a good offer to buy a financial product, sign only when you fully understand what you are buying.
3.1 will become aware of my rights as an investor
Just as we are careful when we buy consumer goods, why don’t we be more careful when we buy a financial product? That could be because We do not want to sound ignorant in front of the product salesman. The most basic aspect of buying any product is to be fully aware of its functionalities and your rights as a user. This applies to financial products as well. Be aware of what your rights and resolutions are; in case your situation changes.
4.1 will consult my financial advisor or appoint one
The world of finance is getting complex by the day. Ten years ago you had simple, easy-to- understand, plain vanilla products. Today is the day and age of futures and options and structured products! With the opening up of the economy and the consequent onslaught of a multitude of financial products, choices have increased and not always to the advantage of the retail investor. So if you are a serious investor, it is time to look for professional help.
The need for sound, unbiased and expert advise on financial products has never been greater. Appoint a financial advisor as early as possible.
5. I will be prudent with my spending
This is easier said than done. If we are a little careful in what we do with our earnings, we could make a big difference to our financial profile. For instance, spending within our means, using credit cards only when one has the capacity to pay off without availing of revolving credit facility, not over leveraging the monthly cash flow, are some of the things that can save on considerable interest outgo and add to your savings.
One can always do more, but you would have done well if you made the five resolutions mentioned above and stuck to it through the year. Happy New Year!
Rego is CEO and founder,
Right Horizons.

Code served cold


Code served cold
APART FROM SOME INSIGNIFICANT PROPOSALS THAT SIMPLIFY THECOMPLEX TAX REGIM, THE DTC OFFERS LITTLE ELSE


The Direct Taxes Code was touted as the most revolutionary tax reform in the history of independent India. But, in its current form, the DTC bill only appears to be a reflection of the current legislation on direct tax, detailed under the Income Tax Act (ITA), 1961.
Aimed at bringing a new paradigm in direct taxation, the DTC was proposed to replace the archaic ITA last year, and weed out the structural complexities and countless provisions brought in by the 84 amendments to ITA in the past 50 years. But the revised draft of the bill only disappoints as it does not propose anything drastically different from the existing law, and the changes that it seeks hardly justifies the hype that was built around it. In fact, most experts say that these could have been incorporated into the present act in normal course through amendments and the Finance Bill which follows the Union Budget every year.
While the DTC is seen as a good move to simplify the convoluted direct tax structure in India, it does not offer anything new which justifies a new code. It puts the innumerable provisions, clauses and sub clauses in the current act into a clear and simple format without any significant departure from the existing provisions.
It was the first DTC draft, released in August last year, which offered to roll out path-breaking changes for both individual and corporate taxpayers, promising a new code in the true sense. It proposed to do away with most of the irrelevant exemptions and deductions available to taxpayers under multiple heads, which gave way to complicated tax structure and consequent tax evasion.
On individual taxation front, it suggested a radical change in tax rates applicable to particular income slabs. Currently, income up to 10 lakh is divided into four slabs—fl.6-5 lakh, 5-8 lakh, 8-10 lakh and 10 lakh and above, with the base rate of 10 per cent for the lowest slab and the maximum rate of 30 per cent for the highest bracket. The first draft of the DTC proposed to merge three income slabs into one charging a unified rate of 10 per cent, with income falling between no lakh and 25 lakh being charged at 20 per cent and anything above ?25 lakh at 30 per cent, the highest rate.
The revised (second) version of  the draft is a pale shadow of the first draft. Barring a slight increase in income exempt from tax—from the current base of no lakh to 2 lakh and merging the t8-10 lakh income bracket into the t5-10 lakh bracket, the revised draft has reverted to the current rates.
That there is no surcharge and education cess is some relief to an otherwise similar individual tax structure. Also, the tax rates would become part of the DTC legislation unlike in the current law, where income tax rates are not part of the ITA. The present system is to announce the tax rates every year through the Finance Bill brought out after the annual budget.
In addition to this, while the first draft offered an investment limit of ?3 lakh, eliminating deduction for interest up to lakh on housing loans, the revised draft has rein
stated this deduction. It has also brought in a new deduction of up to 50,00O for any amount paid towards life and health insurance or tuition fee. So, except this additional 50,00O, the revised draft offers the same deduction (of 1 lakh available under section 80C and 1.5 lakh as interest on housing loan) as under the ITA. In effect, it has reversed the cancellation of deduction for interest on housing loans and brought in yet another new deduction of 50,000.
This is not all. In what has been another policy reversal, is the method of taxing retirement benefits. The original draft recommended an Exempt Exempt Tax (EET) method of taxing contributions made towards certain retirement savings. Under EET, contributions and annual accumulations into specified funds are not taxed, but withdrawal from them are taxed. The revised draft has gone back to the current Exempt method of taxation for Government Provident Fund, Public Provident Fund and Recognized Provident Fund and the pension schemes administered by Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority, reinstating certain allowances that were available in the ITA.
For senior citizens, the exemption limit has been enhanced to 2,50,000 from the current 2,40,000. The exemption limit for women, which is 1.9 lakh at present, is proposed to be withdrawn.
Barring these changes, there are no significant proposals on the individual taxation front. The bill is expected to come up for voting during the monsoon session of Parliament next year. Originally slated to be effective from April 2011, the bill has already been deferred by a year, and is now expected to be in force from April 2012.
At the moment, it has been referred to the Parliamentary Committee which, in turn, is in the process of receiving and evaluating feedback from stakeholders. In the current form, the bill can, at best, be described as old wine in new bottle, according to tax practitioners. Says Vikas Vasal, executive director, KPMG: “Bringing in a new code which is largely similar to the current legislation raises an obvious question: could we have achieved the same with a few amendments to the current act?”
All the same, it has cut out ambiguity and jargons in the current law, which, experts say, could come in handy in the formation of a more robust direct tax regime in the country but the absence of radical
Changes proposed in the original draft brings the new code close to the current law.
Like personal taxation, provisions governing corporate taxes also disappoint. Unlike the first draft, which suggested a uniform rate of 25 per cent for both domestic and foreign companies against the current rates of 30-40 per cent, the revised draft reinstates 30 per cent rate for domestic companies with some relief to foreign entities whose income would be taxed at 30 per cent as against 40 per cent currently. Butas it is still higher than the rate suggested in the original draft, it is perceived as bit of a dampener for the overseas community doing business in India. However, while domestic companies would continue to cough up an additional 15 per cent by way of Dividend Distribution Tax on dividends declared, foreign corporations would be subject to a new tax. They will be levied a Branch Profit Tax of 15 per cent. This, as the name suggests, would be levied on the revenue earned by their branches in India. This was not part of the original draft.
The revised draft also raises the Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) from current 18 per cent to 20 per cent. The only thing that has changed in the second draft in respect of MAT is that it would be continued to be levied on book profits and not gross assets, as was the original proposal, which saw vehement opposition and representation by the business community.
Securities Transaction Tax (STT) was withdrawn in the first draft, but it has been brought back. Under this, income from sale of shares in a company or equity-linked funds for over a year would attract STT and, would, therefore, be exempt from tax. Anything other than shares would be eligible for 50 per cent standard deduction. Therefore, tax rates applicable in the case of resident individuals would be 5,10 and 15 per cent, depending on the slab rate, and for companies, the rate could be 15 per cent.
What has been a welcome change for industries enjoying tax holiday under the current law is the restatement of profit-linked incentives. Under the updated bill, the deduction in respect of units established in a special economic zone under the ITA, will continue to be allowed a profit-linked deduction, if the taxpayer begins to manufacture or provide services in the SEZ unit on or before March 2014. In respect of an SEZ developer, the deduction under the ITA notified on or before March 2012 will continue to be allowed a profit-linked incentive. However, an SEZ developer notified after March 2012 will be eligible to claim investment-linked deduction, as proposed under the original DTC proposal.
In addition, some new provisions which have found place in the DTC Bill include General Anti Avoidance Rules (GAAR), Controlled Foreign Company (CFC), Advance Pricing Agreement and restatement of treaty override. These have been labeled as a “path-breaking” approach to deal with tax avoidance. GAAR is a broad set of provisions that invalidates an arrangement that has been entered into by a taxpayer with the main objective of obtaining a tax benefit. The tax authority in such cases is granted the power to adjust the assessment of the taxpayer so as to counteract the attendant tax advantage. The CFC proposal was not part of the original draft. This is for the first
time the government has sought to introduce a CFC regime. It is an anti-avoidance measure aimed to provide for taxation of passive income earned by a foreign company that is directly or indirectly controlled by a resident in India.
The revised draft of the DTC Bill has reverted to the existing provision available to a tax payer to choose between a tax treaty and the ITA, whichever is more beneficial to him, The first draft, however, sought to redefine this relationship by providing that neither a tax treaty nor the DTC shall have a preferential status by reason of it being a tax treaty or domestic tax law, and that the provision that is later in point of time shall prevail. The revised draft has turned to the current legislation. While these provisions have been widely hailed by industry.